The Sydney Morning Herald ran a front-page warning last week that AI over-investment could trigger a global recession and wipe out the middle class. The Age followed with its own piece questioning whether Australia’s $155 billion data centre building spree will actually pay off. Both stories are worth reading. Neither one is about you.

That’s the thing nobody says clearly. The economic fear around AI is real, but it’s a fear about capital allocation at a scale that most small businesses have nothing to do with. When The Age quotes economist Saul Eslake comparing the data centre boom to past mining booms and wondering whether the tax benefits will materialise, he’s talking about Meta and Google. He’s not talking about the bakery in Bendigo or the bookkeeper in Brisbane.

You’re not holding Nvidia stock

Small businesses are not exposed to the AI investment bubble the way big institutions are. You’re not a data centre developer. You’re not a pension fund with billions parked in tech stocks. You’re not waiting on a corporate AI rollout that may or may not deliver productivity gains.

The Age’s piece, written by Clancy Yeates, cites HSBC putting Australia among the world’s top six data centre investors globally. IT equipment spending hit a record $11.8 billion in the year to March. Andrew Charlton, who knows the investment space well, noted that once these centres are built, they employ “remarkably few people.” That’s a serious structural concern for anyone hoping the boom creates broad-based jobs.

If those data centres underdeliver, the pain lands on Westpac’s balance sheet (they put the investment pipeline at $155 billion), on Meta’s offshore profit-shifting calculus, on the federal government’s tax revenue projections. The small business owner who subscribed to ChatGPT for $30 a month is not on the hook.

The risks that are real for small businesses

The macro picture isn’t entirely disconnected from SMB reality, though. There are three things worth watching.

First, tradespeople. The Age piece points out that building data centres competes for the same electricians and builders needed for housing. If you’re trying to renovate your shopfront, extend your warehouse, or get a sparky in to fix something urgent, you’re already in that queue. The data centre boom makes that queue longer.

Second, electricity prices. Data centres are power-hungry. Australia is already building out the grid for them. That cost goes somewhere, and it won’t go somewhere painless. Small businesses that rely on refrigeration, manufacturing equipment, or just keeping the lights on in a big space should be watching their energy contracts closely.

Third, the broader economy. If the SMH’s warning has merit and the AI investment bubble deflates badly, consumer spending takes a hit. Small businesses serving discretionary spending (hospitality, retail, services) feel that before big companies do. They always have.

What to actually do right now

None of this calls for panic. But it does call for a few practical moves, and the window on some of them is closing.

Look at your energy setup. If you’re on a variable electricity tariff and your bills are already climbing, price-compare now. Lock in a fixed rate if your business can absorb a slightly higher base in exchange for predictability. Don’t wait for the grid to get more expensive before you start shopping around.

Get your tradie work done before you need it urgently. If there’s a maintenance job, a fit-out, or electrical work you’ve been putting off, book it now. The data centre pipeline is real and it’s competing for the same labour you need. Availability and price are only going one direction from here.

Be selective with AI tools. Some small businesses are signing up for expensive AI platforms on the assumption that productivity gains will follow automatically. The economic research The Age cites is honest about this: there isn’t yet strong evidence that AI has delivered the productivity dividend the hype promised. Use the tools that save you time today. Skip the ones that require months of setup before they might pay off.

Keep some cash buffer. If the macro environment deteriorates, businesses that went into a downturn with six weeks of operating costs in reserve lasted a lot longer than those that didn’t. The SMH’s front-page warning, whatever you make of it, is a reasonable prompt to check where you sit on that.